Saturday, June 23, 2018

I'd love to trust, but...

     According to www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-stands-victims-illegal-alien-crime and twitter.com/POTUS "In Texas alone, more than 250,000 criminal aliens have been arrested and charged with over 600,000 criminal offenses within the last seven years."  In case you didn't notice or were not aware, the illegal aliens mentioned in whitehouse.gov and the criminal aliens mentioned in the quote are not defined the same.   
     An illegal alien is someone who enters the country in a manner other than prescribed by law.  A criminal alien is someone, other than a citizen, who violates a statute.  This second term is defined without reference to a process of entry.  A criminal alien may have entered the U.S. illegally but they may also hold a permanent residency visa or perhaps possess an EB-4 visa,  These are just 2 examples wherein an individual may reside legally within the U.S. but, this has no bearing on their ability or inclination to commit a criminal act.  Therefore, I went to the source from which the quoted data was derived to discern what point was being made.  If you would like to view the source you may do so at www.dps.texas.gov/administration/crime_records/pages/txCriminalAlienStatistics.
     After reading the source data I still suffered from some confusion.  I was unsure whether the point was to elicit fear and instill anxiety either through a poor presentation or intentionally.  
     According to TX DPS data, of the 250,000 referenced, 171,000 were in the U.S. illegally.  Of the "over 600,000 criminal offenses" for which charges were brought. This number includes felonies and misdemeanors.  Illegal aliens were charged with a variety of offenses.  198,164, about a third, included homicide, assault, burglary, drug, kidnapping, theft, obstruction, robbery, sexual assault, and weapons charges.  Now, those are some serious charges and vile acts to be committed against both citizens, residents and nonresident aliens.  I consider it just as vile when a violent crime is committed against an illegal alien or a native citizen.  I know this view is not shared by all.
     Now, in the U.S., charges brought does not guilt imply.  You may be familiar with the old saw, "Innocent until proven guilty".  The above 198,164 charges in the listed categories over the past 7 years, June 1, 2011-May 31, 2018, have resulted in 52,639 convictions.  This represents a conviction rate of about 27% .5572747
     For the same time period quoted by the Whitehouse and President Trump there have been about 6,500,000 arrests made in the Great State of Texas.  An arrest may result in multiple charges but for the sake of simplicity let us assume each arrest only brings 1 charge.  "Over 600,000..." is quoted above so lets call it 650,000, so you may make the claim criminal aliens are responsible for 10% of all charges levied.  However, the Whitehouse and President were making reference to illegal aliens.  In that case we have illegal aliens responsible for about 3% of charges levied.  With a conviction rate of 27% this would indicate illegal aliens are responsible for 0.81% of alleged crime on Texas.  
     I realize it's a lot harder to be gripped by fear in light of this context.  I apologize to the current administration.
      

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