Yesterday Apples, Today Oranges

Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on current  world wide threats 01/29/19 at 0930 et.
In attendance as witnesses were:
Director Daniel Coats
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
ODNI 
Director Christopher Wray
Federal Bureau of Investigation
FBI
Director Gina Haspel
Central Intelligence Agency
CIA
Director General Robert Ashley
Defense Intelligence Agency
DIA
Director General Paul Nakasone
National Security Agency
NSA
Director Robert Cardillo
National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
NGA

APPLES

     The opening statement was made by Daniel Coats.  The following are excerpts.

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea increasingly use cyber operations... 
China and Russia pose the greatest espionage and cyber attack threats...
China presents a persistent cyber espionage threat and a growing attack threat to our core military and critical infrastructure systems.  
We assess that Russia poses a cyber espionage, influence, and attack threat to the United States and our allies. Moscow continues to be a highly capable and effective adversary, integrating cyber espionage, attack, and influence operations to achieve its political and military objectives. Moscow is now staging cyber attack assets to allow it to disrupt or damage US civilian and military infrastructure during a crisis and poses a significant cyber influence threat...
Russian intelligence and security services will continue targeting US information systems,,,,
North Korea poses a significant cyber threat to financial institutions, remains a cyber espionage threat, and retains the ability to conduct disruptive cyber attacks.
Our adversaries and strategic competitors probably already are looking to the 2020 US elections as an opportunity to advance their interests. More broadly, US adversaries and strategic competitors almost certainly will use online influence operations to try to weaken democratic institutions, undermine US alliances and partnerships, and shape policy outcomes in the United States and elsewhere.
Russia’s social media efforts will continue to focus on aggravating social and racial tensions, undermining trust in authorities, and criticizing perceived anti-Russia politicians. Moscow may employ additional influence toolkits—such as spreading disinformation, conducting hack-and leak operations, or manipulating data—in a more targeted fashion to influence US policy, actions, and elections.

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND PROLIFERATION

North Korea Pyongyang has not conducted any nuclear-capable missile or nuclear tests in more than a year, has declared its support for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and has reversibly dismantled portions of its WMD infrastructure. However, North Korea retains its WMD capabilities, and the IC continues to assess that it is unlikely to give up all of its WMD stockpiles, delivery systems, and production capabilities. North Korean leaders view nuclear arms as critical to regime survival.
We continue to observe activity inconsistent with full denuclearization. 
Russia We assess that Russia will remain the most capable WMD adversary through 2019 and beyond, developing new strategic and nonstrategic weapons systems.
China We assess that China will continue to expand and diversify its WMD capabilities.
Iran We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device. However, Iranian officials have publicly threatened to reverse some of Iran’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) commitments—and resume nuclear activities that the JCPOA limits—if Iran does not gain the tangible trade and investment benefits it expected from the deal. 
 Iran continues to work with other JCPOA participants—China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom—to find ways to salvage economic benefits from it. Iran’s continued implementation of the JCPOA has extended the amount of time Iran would need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon from a few months to about one year

TERRORISM

ISIS ISIS still commands thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria, and it maintains eight branches, more than a dozen networks, and thousands of dispersed supporters around the world, despite significant leadership and territorial losses. The group will exploit any reduction in CT pressure to strengthen its clandestine presence and accelerate rebuilding key capabilities, such as media production and external operations. ISIS very likely will continue to pursue external attacks from Iraq and Syria against regional and Western adversaries, including the United States.
ISIS is perpetrating attacks in Iraq and Syria to undermine stabilization efforts and retaliate against its enemies, exploiting sectarian tensions in both countries. ISIS probably realizes that controlling new territory is not sustainable in the near term. We assess that ISIS will seek to exploit Sunni grievances, societal instability, and stretched security forces to regain territory in Iraq and Syria in the long term.
Al-Qa‘ida Al-Qa‘ida senior leaders are strengthening the network’s global command structure and continuing to encourage attacks against the West, including the United States, although most al-Qa‘ida affiliates’ attacks to date have been small scale and limited to their regional areas. We expect that al-Qa‘ida’s global network will remain a CT challenge for the United States and its allies during the next year.
Homegrown Violent Extremists Homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) are likely to present the most acute Sunni terrorist threat to the United States, and HVE activity almost certainly will have societal effects disproportionate to the casualties and damage it causes. 

Additional

Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy The global race to develop artificial intelligence (AI)—systems that imitate aspects of human cognition—is likely to accelerate the development of highly capable, application-specific AI systems with national security implications. As academia, major companies, and large government programs continue to develop and deploy AI capabilities, AI-enhanced systems are likely to be trusted with increasing levels of autonomy and decision making, presenting the world with a host of economic, military, ethical, and 16 privacy challenges. Furthermore, interactions between multiple advanced AI systems could lead to unexpected outcomes that increase the risk of economic miscalculation or battlefield surprise. 
Information and Communications Foreign production and adoption of advanced communication technologies, such as fifth-generation (5G) wireless networks, most likely will challenge US competitiveness and data security, while advances in quantum computing foreshadow challenges to current methods of protecting data and transactions.
Biotechnology Rapid advances in biotechnology, including gene editing, synthetic biology, and neuroscience, are likely to present new economic, military, ethical, and regulatory challenges worldwide as governments struggle to keep pace. These technologies hold great promise for advances in precision medicine, agriculture, and manufacturing, but they also introduce risks, such as the potential for adversaries to develop novel biological warfare agents, threaten food security, and enhance or degrade human performance.

TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME 

Global transnational criminal organizations and networks will threaten US interests and allies by trafficking drugs, exerting malign influence in weak states, threatening critical infrastructure, orchestrating human trafficking, and undermining legitimate economic activity. Drug Trafficking The foreign drug threat will pose continued risks to US public health and safety and will present a range of threats to US national security interests in the coming year. Violent Mexican traffickers, such as members of the Sinaloa Cartel and New Generation Jalisco Cartel, remain key to the movement of illicit drugs to the United States, including heroin, methamphetamine, fentanyl, and cannabis from Mexico, as well as cocaine from Colombia. Chinese synthetic drug suppliers dominate US-bound movements of so called designer drugs, including synthetic marijuana, and probably ship the majority of US fentanyl, when adjusted for purity. 
Transnational organized crime almost certainly will continue to inflict human suffering, deplete natural resources, degrade fragile ecosystems, drive migration, and drain income from the productive—and taxable—economy.  Human trafficking generates an estimated $150 billion annually for illicit actors and governments that engage in forced labor, according to the UN’s International Labor Organization.

HUMAN SECURITY 

The United States will probably have to manage the impact of global human security challenges, such as threats to public health, historic levels of human displacement, assaults on religious freedom, and the negative effects of environmental degradation and climate change. Global Health We assess that the United States and the world will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large scale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.  

Environment and Climate Change

 Global environmental and ecological degradation, as well as climate change, are likely to fuel competition for resources, economic distress, and social discontent through 2019 and beyond. Climate hazards such as extreme weather, higher temperatures, droughts, floods, wildfires, storms, sea level rise, soil degradation, and acidifying oceans are intensifying, threatening infrastructure, health, and water and food security. Irreversible damage to ecosystems and habitats will undermine the economic benefits they provide, worsened by air, soil, water, and marine pollution.  Extreme weather events, many worsened by accelerating sea level rise, will particularly affect urban coastal areas in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Western Hemisphere. Damage to communication, energy, and transportation infrastructure could affect low-lying military bases, inflict economic costs, and cause human displacement and loss of life.  Changes in the frequency and variability of heat waves, droughts, and floods—combined with poor governance practices—are increasing water and food insecurity around the world, increasing the risk of social unrest, migration, and interstate tension in countries such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, and Jordan.  Diminishing Arctic sea ice may increase competition—particularly with Russia and China— over access to sea routes and natural resources. Nonetheless, Arctic states have maintained mostly positive cooperation in the region through the Arctic Council and other multilateral mechanisms, a trend we do not expect to change in the near term. Warmer temperatures and diminishing sea ice are reducing the high cost and risks of some commercial activities and are attracting new players to the resource-rich region. In 2018, the minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was 25 percent below the 30-year average from 1980 to 2010.

REGIONAL THREATS

North Korea Nuclear Ambitions Pyongyang has not conducted any nuclear capable missile or nuclear tests in more than a year, has declared its support for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and has reversibly dismantled portions of its WMD infrastructure. However, we continue to assess that North Korea is unlikely to give up all of its nuclear weapons and production capabilities, even as it seeks to negotiate partial denuclearization steps to obtain key US and international concessions. North Korean leaders view nuclear arms as critical to regime survival, according to official statements and regime-controlled media.
 We continue to observe activity inconsistent with full denuclearization. North Korea has underscored its commitment to nuclear arms for years, including through an order to mass produce weapons in 2018 and an earlier law—and constitutional change—that affirmed the country’s nuclear status. 
Saudi Arabia Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman continues to control the key levers of power in Saudi Arabia, but his simultaneous push for economic and social reform creates potential flash points for internal opposition. Saudi public support for the royal family appears to remain high, even in the wake of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Moreover, we assess that the Saudi Government remains well positioned to stifle small-scale protests and discontent; it has preemptively arrested or forcibly detained clerics, business leaders, and civil society activists who could be nodes for discontent. 

Global Ambitions

 Russia’s efforts to expand its global military, commercial, and energy footprint and build partnerships with US allies and adversaries alike are likely to pose increasing challenges. Moscow will continue to emphasize its strategic relationship with Beijing, while also pursuing a higher profile in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We assess that Moscow will continue pursuing a range of objectives to expand its reach, including undermining the US-led liberal international order, dividing Western political and security institutions, demonstrating Russia’s ability to shape global issues, and bolstering Putin’s domestic legitimacy. Russia seeks to capitalize on perceptions of US retrenchment and power vacuums, which it views the United States is unwilling or unable to fill, by pursuing relatively low-cost options, including influence campaigns, cyber tools, and limited military interventions.  
After decades of increased spending to support modernization, Russia’s defense budget is decreasing to about 3.8 percent of GDP in 2019, from a peak of about 5.4 percent in 2016. Because of momentum in military acquisitions, we judge that the budget is normalizing to pre-peak spending levels.

ORANGES

President Trump said Russia does not pose a threat to the United States, contradicting his director of national intelligence on a critical security issue and deepening a political controversy that began at his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump, standing beside Putin after their meetings, suggested he gave equal weight to the Russian leader's denial of election meddling and the conclusion of the U.S. intelligence agencies that the meddling occurred. 

V. Putin "President Donald Trump is “right” to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, ..."

Donald Trump "“There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.”

Donald Trump “This horrible one-sided deal allowed Iran to continue its path towards a bomb and gave the regime a cash lifeline when they needed it most.”

Donald Trump "But we've done an excellent job. We've defeated ISIS. ISIS is defeated in all of the areas that we fought ISIS, ..."

Donald Trump "The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong! "

Donald Trump " Caliphate will soon be destroyed, unthinkable two years ago. "

I don't know about you, but I'm sticking with APPLES. The APPLES have over 150 years of legal, military, intelligence and public service experience. In the ORANGE corner we have ALMOST 2 years of public service that has been characterized by hyperbole and lies. Donald Trump claims to know more about everything than anyone. Donald Trump is commended by the leader of Russia, our most capable foe. Donald Trump is a threat to the union. When your enemies support your actions you may actually need to reconsider. This is not something Donald Trump is capable of. Donald Trump mocks the cold that is killing our fellow citizens and asks for the relief of "global warming". Climate change is significant enough it is considered to be a global threat by the APPLES, According to Donald Trump, his entire intelligence apparatus is incapable because they cannot support his flights of fancy, his "natural instinct". He can deny 10's of 1,000's of hours of research and analysis by professionals because, "My gut tells me more than anybody's brain".  Are you effing kidding me?  Who thinks it's a good idea for someone who can initiate the launch of nuclear weapons to actually operate on the basis that his uninformed, self serving, incomplete notions of policy are more valid than verified vetted data?

I am exhausted by his ineptitude.

*highlights added by me