Saturday, July 29, 2017

U.S. Foreign Affairs methodology

I have here an example of our President conducting foreign affairs.

Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump
"I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!"

Other than POTUS, who reading this believes and can explain how this problem could be easily solved? 

Here are some possible difficulties.  N. Korea shares a border with China.  The Chinese have no interest in a unified Korea allied with the United States.  This is particularly so if that unified state allows a U.S. military presence.  The Kim's are the only ruling family N. Korea has ever known since it's founding.  No opposition is allowed or tolerated.  The most pragmatic approach would probably necessitate regime change.  The Chinese have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.  N. Korea and it's potential offensive capabilities, conventional and nuclear, require an investment of U.S. capital and personnel that could otherwise be utilized elsewhere.  This would possibly be to the detriment of Chinese interest.  Regime change would result in an immediate flood of refugees to China and S. Korea.  The citizens of N. Korea have been malnourished and oppressed for decades.  The current population of N. Korea is approximately 25 million.  There would be masses flooding across borders.  If you think Syrian refugees pose a threat, imagine a 38% larger population needing to be fed and housed.  Furthermore, unlike Saddam Hussein and  his supposed weapons of mass destruction, we know N. Korea possesses fissile material.  Even if the entire regime could be promptly and thoroughly removed, the security of these materials cannot be assured. 

Also, the President of the United States is not a merchant.  Regardless of what China makes in trade your job is to represent the civilian power as Commander in Chief, to grant pardons and reprieves for offenses against the U.S., and to enter into treaties with foreign powers.  If you are unsure of the veracity of the preceding, refer to U.S. Constitution, Article 2, Section 2.   The U.S. is China's largest trading partner.  They have no national interest in endangering this relationship.  Let the Captains of Industry engage in Mercantilism.  You are required to be a statesman. Since you have proclaimed you will no longer allow this to continue, I assume you are going to present and act upon your first coherent foreign policy plan.

You have a Secretary of State.  Rather than employing social media to espouse your views, you may want to considering allowing him to present those via diplomatic channels.  Of course, since you have emasculated the Department of State, his job will be considerably more difficult.  Regardless, there is a reason nation states deploy diplomats.

Good luck to you and Rex.

Whaduyathink?



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