The Defeat of ISIS

For more than 2 years, Donald Trump, as a candidate, President-elect and President, has held forth on defeating ISIS.  He advocates an extensive air campaign, the annihilation of ISIS, including the killing of the families of ISIS members, and states he is better informed with regard to ISIS than his Generals.  I will make some comments that are based solely on the direct quotes of the current Commander-in-Chief.  I have not relied upon the opinion of any news agency, pundit, or party hack.  You are just as capable of making yourself mindful of POTUS' actual statements, rather than his lackeys' spin, as am I.

President Trump has stated he possessed a plan to defeat ISIS quickly and effectively.  He has also declared he knows more about ISIS than his Generals.  Subsequently, he has directed those same Generals to provide him with a  Plan to Defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.  This is not my opinion.  His statements, memorandum, and executive orders are available for your perusal.

With regard to POTUS' espoused methodology allow me to comment.  When you propose to annihilate an opposing force (and their families) you have removed all basis for a negotiated or imposed peace.  The opposing force knows there will be no quarter and therefore will resist by all means available t them.  In the face of annihilation, friendly forces who come under the influence of the opposition, through capture or injury, have no reasonable claim nor expectation to merciful or humane treatment.  Hence, when you develop such a policy you not only provide a propaganda source to those with whom you are in conflict but you also expose your own forces to greater risk.

According to POTUS' comments he apparently believes the defeat of ISIS is possible by the almost exclusive use of air power.  I agree that in a military conflict the extensive use of air power to degrade the effectiveness of an opposing force and effect the imposition of a national will is an important, even essential, part of a strategy.  However, short of the extensive use of nuclear weapons, which raises another set of issues, there can be no victory solely through the use of  air power.  Here are some examples.  In February of 1945 the allies bombed Dresden, Germany for 3 days.  This resulted in a firestorm which engulfed central Dresden.  The population of Dresden at that time was approximately 350,000.  The generally accepted number of deaths as a result of this bombing action is 25,000.  In August of 1945 the U.S. bombed Hiroshima, Japan with the first nuclear weapon ever employed in combat.  At the time the population of Hiroshima was estimated at 381,000.  The number of deaths attributed to this strike over the first 2-4 months is 90,000-146,000.  In 1991 air power was used to great affect in Desert Storm.  However, is was immediately followed by ground campaign.  There are 2 points here.  The first is, bombing is never the sole means to victory.  The second is, annihilation is not a viable strategy.

On June 21st of this year the President  delegated to the Secretary of Defense the functions and authorities vested in the President by section 10005 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2017 (Public Law 115-31) (the "Act").  This provides Secretary Mattis authorization to designate the purpose and expenditure of $2,476,200,000.  However, these funds will not be available until 15 days after the President provides the appropriate committees a report on the United States strategy for the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham.  Apparently, there is still no plan.

Donald J. Trump is the duly elected President of the United States, and therefore Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces.  Would you willingly allow him to place in harms' way, based upon the above, your friends and family?

The below are direct quotes of POTUS.  The text highlighted in red are my comments/questions.

May 27, 2015 on Fox News:  Trump said, “I do know what to do and I would know how to bring ISIS to the table or, beyond that, defeat ISIS very quickly.”  He then added, “And I’m not gonna tell you what it is tonight.” Trump explained:  “I don’t want the enemy to know what I’m doing. Unfortunately, I’ll probably have to tell at some point, but there is a method of defeating them quickly and effectively and having total victory.”
What is total victory?  

July 8, 2015 July 8 interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper:   "I would do things that would be so tough that I don't even know if they'd be around to come to the table. … I would bomb the hell out of those oil fields [in Iraq]. I wouldn't send many troops, because you won't need them by the time I got finished."

Aug. 10, 2015 MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Aug. 10:   "I would knock the hell out of them, but I'd put a ring around it and I'd take the oil for our country."
Since, according to your statement on July 8, 2015 you will not send many troops, of what will this ring consist?

November 12, 2015:  Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump elaborated on his strategy to defeat the terrorist group ISIS.  He would go after ISIS-controlled oil fields and "bomb the s--- out of 'em,".  "I would bomb the s--- out of 'em. I would just bomb those suckers."

November 13, 2015 CNN Newsroom:  "I know more about ISIS than the Generals do.  Believe me."
This from a man who has never served a day in the military.  He has never "gone in harm's way".  He has never led troops into battle.  He has never attended the United States Army Command and General Staff College (CGSC).  

December 2, 2015 Fox and Friends:  “But we’re fighting a very politically correct war. And the other thing is, with the terrorists: You have to take out their families. When you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families. They care about their lives. Don’t kid yourself. But they say they don’t care about their lives. You have to take out their families.”
This is a tactic that would likely be considered a war crime.  The purposeful murder of civilians during wartime is widely considered a crime against humanity. Specifically, under the U.S.-signed Hague Conventions, the U.S. has agreed not to intentionally use violence against civilian non-combatants during wartime.

September 6, 2015 Greenville N.C. campaign stop:  “We are going to convey my top generals and give them a simple instruction,”  “They will have 30 days to submit to the Oval Office a plan for soundly and quickly defeating ISIS.
I'm not really clear on what happened to the secret plan or why he would request a plan from Generals who know less than him.

September 7, 2016 Commander in Chief Forum:  “When I do come up with a plan that I like and that perhaps agrees with mine, or maybe doesn’t, I may love what the generals come back with. I have a plan, but I don’t want to ― look, I have a very substantial chance of winning, make America great again. We’re going to make America great again. I have a substantial chance of winning. If I win, I don’t want to broadcast to the enemy exactly what my plan is. Let me tell you, if I like maybe a combination of my plan or the generals’ plan, if I like their plan, I’m not going to call you up and say, we have a great plan."
WTF, over.

September 19, 2016 Fox News:  “we have to get tough.”  "We're going to have to do something extremely tough over there".

January 28, 2017:  Presidential Memorandum Plan to Defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

SUBJECT: Plan to Defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

Sec. 1.  Policy.  It is the policy of the United States that ISIS be defeated.

(i)    Development of a new plan to defeat ISIS (the Plan) shall commence immediately. (ii)   Within 30 days, a preliminary draft of the Plan to defeat ISIS shall be submitted to the President by the Secretary of Defense.
(iii)  The Plan shall include:
(A)  a comprehensive strategy and plans for the defeat of ISIS;

May 2017:  “President Donald Trump has instructed the Pentagon to ‘annihilate’ the Islamic State group in Syria in a bid to prevent escaped foreign fighters from returning home, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said.  

Whaduyathink?